I wonder about the impact of Federal Employees taking “the deal.” They come off the books on October 1st. That is going to have an impact on unemployment numbers, tax revenues, and the job market.

I would think someone would be making a big deal about this.

Trump is no deficit hawk. Unfortunately....

Prioritizing getting elected over doing what is right is how we got into this mess in the first place. The need to get elected/reelected is the excuse that never ends.

Biden basically blew 1 trillion in Covid Funds - let’s remember that.

“Trump is no deficit hawk. Unfortunately....

Prioritizing getting elected over doing what is right is how we got into this mess in the first place. The need to get elected/reelected is the excuse that never ends. “

Absolutely. It is pure and simple self preservation at any and all costs TO US. It isn’t coming out of their pockets so why should they care.

There is some merit in electing/reelecting Republicans as opposed to putting “our good friends across the aisle” in charge, however.

Which is the horrific alternative.

Between the proverbial rock and a hard place.

REMEMBER, you still have to get reelected. Don’t go too crazy!

What a sh*tty idea.

Liz Cheney didn’t learn that lesson.

This is like making sausage. Not for the squeamish.

Start off with every Democrat voting against. This means you need almost every Republican. Republicans range from deficit hawks to deficit doves. In addition, some Republicans are transactional, looking to trade their vote for pork barrel spending in their state or district.

If you try to please the deficit hawks, you’re going to lose votes from the deficit doves. You’re just not going to pick up as many votes as you lose.

If you try to please the deficit doves, you may be able to pass the bill, but you’ll probably make little or no progress in reducing the deficit.

You don’t have to like the mess we’re in to recognize the reality of it.

I am sorry to tell you this, but politics is often about choosing the lesser of two evils.

How this will play out isn’t entirely predictable. We have 53 Senators (and the VP is the case of a tie). We’re not going to get Rand Paul’s vote. This stinker of a bill is too much for him to swallow.

Thom Tillis voted no and, at the same time, announced he’s not going to run for re-election. Not running for re-election, he’s something of a free agent. His opposition to the bill, as I understand it, is that it assumes too much money can be saved by disqualifying illegal aliens from Medicaid.

Our weak sisters - Collins of Maine and Murkowski of Alaska - got the deals they demanded in return for their votes. Something of a surprise. Considering that Sue Collins is from Maine, which tilts Democrat, she’s been a relatively reliable vote. Murkowski, considering she’s from Alaska, has been disappointing.

Turtle Man, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, has been around the block a few times. He hates Trump (the feeling is mutual) but Mitch was formerly in leadership and is used to holding his nose while voting.

Majority leader Thune of South Dakota and VP Vance deserve a lot of credit for getting us to where we now are. Now that we’re in the Red Zone, we’ll see if we can get this bill across the goal line.

The CBO evaluation of deficit expansion is based on current law — which expires the 2017 tax cuts in September. This all derives from the 10 year aspect of all this.

The final CBO call is $3.3T. THIS IS NOT DEBT INCREASE. THIS IS DEFICIT INCREASE. You multiply that by 10 to get debt increase.

But not really. The CBO is evaluating on the basis of what it would have been starting Sept. The correct calculation is about 0.9T (the increase over what they already pegged for the 2017 tax extension (why the word extension rather than permanence?)).

So the current deficit is $1.9T. We’re going to add 0.9T to that with this BBB. And I think it is instantaneous, not 0 in year 1 and 0.9 in year 10. It’s all starting in year 1.

And so, $2.8T X 10 = $28T added to the $37T current debt for a total of $65T. Composite interest rate? Call it 4%. Not 1%. The President wants short term rates at 1%, but that’s not composite.

4% is actually absurdly optimistic. But anyway, 4% on $65T is $2.6T per year in interest.

The President is going for broke. Not a stupid move when the level of desperation is so high. He is going to try to drive growth through the roof. Not stupid.

But not likely.

Continue playing the violins on the deck...while the ship continues to sink. Good strategy.

The need to get elected/reelected is the excuse that never ends.

True but getting a democratic Congress would be no fun either.

Cynical rationale.

Cynical?

I would call it realistic.

For example, if you cut Medicare and Medicaid beyond the fraud, the Democrats will be elected and the country will be destroyed.

Hoax impeachments are an act of War this time around.

Trump needs to define what spending he thinks is/isn’t needed and why. In a major policy address. Truth Social is not the place to deal with this.

True. But still waste of time. Why give them the opportunity?

If MAGA agenda doesn’t get fast tracked, including things President Trump ran on and wants, the Swamp R team can kiss millions of voters goodbye..

Even Trump begging and pleading for votes in 2 years won’t help..

Obliteration and draining happens from within the White House or outside of it on the streets..

That was delayed in 2021 after a stolen election.

The war this nation’s govt has waged against Trump and MAGA is going to have to end one way or another.

535 Swampers are on notice since November 2024...

You two have done a remarkable job of encapsulating the political and economic prospects. Yes, Trump is going for broke, because we are. It’s GOP inattention to the 2024 Democrat theft of House races that got us to where we had to play things this narrowly. I don’t see Trump cranking that up for next year either.