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As Ottawa and Alberta signed a memorandum of understanding on a proposed bitumen pipeline that could move a million barrels a day from the province to Asian markets through a B.C. port, Canadians are watching closely.

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Industry leaders and the Alberta government were quick to celebrate the announcement as a breakthrough. After years of friction with Ottawa, it feels like progress and a chance to move long-stalled projects forward while securing concessions including regulatory relief, power infrastructure and carbon compliance flexibility.

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That optimism matters. It signals alignment between Alberta and the federal government, which has been rare in recent years. For businesses, even symbolic co-operation can help unlock conversations and planning. And as I’ve been told on X by my followers, “Martin, take the win.” Fair point, as this is much better than another stalemate.

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But let’s keep some important perspective: This memorandum is not a pipeline. At best it’s a signal of intent. At worst it’s a participation ribbon dressed up as a trophy.

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Renowned investor Charlie Munger once told a story about visiting a bait shop filled with purple, green, and yellow lures. He asked the owner if the colours made any difference in catching fish. “No idea,” the man replied. “I don’t sell lures to fish.” That’s what this memorandum feels like: a flashy lure designed to attract applause, not actual investment.

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If Canada were serious about building a pipeline, the path forward would be clear: repeal Bill C-69, the Impact Assessment Act, and Bill C-48, the Oil Tanker Moratorium Act, streamline the regulatory process and stop tying export capacity to carbon capture mandates. None of that happened here.

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Instead, the fine print tells the real story. The pipeline must secure Indigenous and British Columbia approval, be privately financed, deliver substantial economic benefits to B.C. and use Canadian steel. Ottawa and Alberta promise “trilateral discussions,” but the Pathways Alliance carbon capture project is a prerequisite for construction. In short: layers upon layers of conditions, zero capital interest and no timeline. This isn’t a plan, it feels more like a pipedream.

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The irony is that Canada desperately needs infrastructure to move its resources efficiently and competitively. Our oil sands remain among the largest reserves in the world, yet we continue to handicap ourselves with excessive regulatory and political uncertainty. Investors don’t commit billions of dollars based on aspirational press releases. They need clarity, predictability and a competitive framework. Right now, Canada offers none of those.

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The global energy race and Canada’s carbon capture gamble

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Consider the global context. Among the world’s Top Five oil producers — the United States, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Canada and China — Canada is the only one tying incremental pipeline capacity to costly, anti-competitive carbon capture requirements. When you’re the outlier, it’s worth asking: Why?