ANOTHER DEBATE, SAME RHETORIC
After hundreds of thousands of people cast their vote at early voting centres across the country yesterday and the major parties claimed they had, kind of, suspended their campaigns for the day following the death of Pope Francis, we got yet another debate between two men in suits last night.
Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton went head-to-head for the third time last night, with Channel Nine journalists scoring it as a victory for the Coalition leader.
The ABC says the five main takeaways from the event included: both leaders saying they would not change their stance on nuclear power regardless of the election result; both trying to paint the other as incapable of navigating the country through this period of global uncertainty; both saying they would not change negative gearing or the capital gains tax discount if elected; Dutton deferring his debt reduction plan to after the election (prompting Albanese to accuse him of planning secret cuts); and both men strugging to distil their platforms into pithy voter pitches.
The Nine papers lead on the personal attacks the pair levelled at each other, saying: “Peter Dutton branded Anthony Albanese loose with the truth, while the prime minister accused the opposition leader of desperation”.
That first point by Dutton was in response to Labor’s costings of the Coalition’s energy policy and claims the opposition leader would cut healthcare.
At one point Dutton said to Albanese: “Prime Minister, you couldn’t lie straight in bed. Honestly, this is unbelievable.” To which Albanese countered: “You can go to personal abuse, that’s a sign of desperation, Peter, frankly.”
Guardian Australia leads on Dutton blaming the Coalition’s recent poor polling on Labor’s attack ads, rather than his own performance during the campaign, saying: “The Labor party spent $20 million throwing mud and negative ads and that has an impact.”
The opposition leader also said he believed the polling would improve closer to May 3, and suggested the apparent drop in the Coalition’s popularity reported by repeated polls could be wrong, highlighting what happened in 2019 with Scott Morrison.
“There was a very different outcome on election day compared to what the polling indicated [in 2019]. I believe that we’ve got a very strong chance at the election. A first-term government has not lost since 1931, but there has not been a worse government in Australia’s history since 1931 than this one,” he said.
The Australian Financial Review highlights Albanese made reference to growing support for minor parties and independent candidates, conceding: “That reflects the changes in our economy, the changes in our society, and we recognise that.” He also countered the accusation that he was too soft to deliver effective leadership by saying “kindness isn’t weakness”.
Meanwhile, Dutton tried to suggest “the reason that you get all of the negative ads and the lies and the mudslinging and the rest of it” was apparently because the Albanese government “doesn’t have a good story to tell of the last three years”.
The AFR concludes its write-up by flagging that the pair was asked to nominate three things they admire about their opponent. “Albanese praised Dutton’s family, his longevity in politics and his ability to hold his Queensland seat of Dickson”, the paper says, “Dutton praised the prime minister’s son Nathan Albanese and his partner Jodie Haydon, as well as Albanese’s support for the AUKUS nuclear pact when Labor was in opposition.”
So “who won?” I hear you cry (as well as “seriously, these debates make absolutely no difference to anything”). Well:
- As mentioned at the top, the Nine journalists involved in the debate, Deb Knight, Charles Croucher and Phil Coorey, scored it 2-1 as a victory for Dutton.
- Of the five pundits writing in The Australian, one called it a draw, one called it for Albanese, one for Dutton, and the other two hedged their bets, basically suggesting nothing moved the dial.
- In the Nine papers, two correspondents called it as a victory for Dutton, one called it a draw.
- The AFR reckons “Peter Dutton was slightly better prepared than Anthony Albanese with retorts, rebuttals, pot shots and insults. He was also slightly better prepared with retail responses, giving him a small edge over Albanese on the night.”
- The Conversation states: “Who won this encounter, once again, differed in the eyes of various beholders.” In a separate piece, one analyst called it for Albanese while the other two focused on the fact the leaders were allowed to wheel out their “greatest hits” without achieving anything of note on the night.
- The Herald Sun’s analysis scored it 2-1 in favour of Dutton, but struggled to declare it a decisive victory.
You’ll be pleased to learn we only have one more leaders’ debate to go before May 3, the last one will be on Sunday night on 7News. I know you can’t wait.
DUTTON GOES ON THE DEFENCE
On to things that actually matter, candidates have just today and tomorrow to make their case to the undecided voting public this week before campaigning pauses yet again on Friday, this time for Anzac Day.
The Australian Electoral Commission said at midday (AEST) on Tuesday, 230,000 people had already cast their vote in the federal election, just hours after the early voting centres had opened.
One voting centre found itself in the news after a Liberal Party campaign truck crashed into a portico at Quakers Hill Community Centre in Western Sydney, 9News reports. The report said the truck was covered in material advertising Liberal candidate for Greenway Rattan Virk, and video footage showed “a man hastily removing Virk’s signage from the truck following the accident”.
Overnight, we finally got news of Dutton’s big defence pitch, with the ABC reporting the Coalition has pledged to “spend an extra $21 billion between now and 2030 to reach its goal of lifting overall military spending”. The broadcaster says Dutton will today make the announcement alongside shadow defence minister Andrew Hastie, who “has been largely absent from national campaign events”.
The Nightly flags Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has been keen to highlight Hastie’s absence from events, saying earlier this week: “One of the things that is emerging very clearly is that the other team aren’t so much a team. There is chaos on their side. They have senior shadow ministers who haven’t been sighted. I don’t know where Andrew Hastie has been. He’s the shadow defence minister.” Responding to the attacks, Hatsie told ABC radio yesterday: “Every three years we apply for our jobs and I’m working very hard for my constituents and I’m doing a lot of work across the country.”
Back to the actual policy, the ABC says Dutton’s $21 billion pledge would be almost double Labor’s planned increase to the defence budget. The Coalition’s plan would see overall defence spending rise to 2.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) over the next five years, up from its current 2%. There is also an “aspiration” to get to 3% within a decade.
In a statement, Dutton pledged: “The Coalition will strengthen the Australian Defence Force and support our service men and women to keep us safe today and into generations ahead.”
The Conversation notes the statement “does not go into detail about how the bigger allocation would be spent, or how it would be paid for”. Defence Minister Richard Marles responded to the statement, released before Dutton and Hastie speak today, with: “It won’t cut it to have vague numbers, to have aspirations, to have signposts in the future. There needs to be a great deal of specificity in respect of what that defence policy looks like.”
Elsewhere in the campaign, the latest Roy Morgan survey reckons: “If a federal election were held now, the ALP would be returned to government with an increased majority, with the ALP on 55.5% (up 1% point from a week ago) ahead of the LNP Coalition on 44.5% (down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis.”
The Australian’s latest Newspoll shows women voters have “have deserted the Coalition, with a dramatic fall in support since the start of the campaign”. If you haven’t read my colleague Crystal Andrews’ brilliant piece last week, “Is Peter Dutton aware that women… can vote?”, it’s well worth your time.
Sky News reports Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party has made a last-minute change to switch preferencing to ensure Liberals are second in key seats under threat by Labor or an independent. The broadcaster also flags the Coalition has listed One Nation second in 139 out of 147 lower house seats.
Meanwhile, The Age has gone on a journey looking into the Liberal Party’s candidate in Bruce, Zahid Safi’s, businesses.
Finally, The Sydney Morning Herald reports the Greens will back Climate 200 candidates and Senator Fatima Payman’s party over Labor in “must-win” seats.
ON A LIGHTER NOTE…
Thousands of robots took part in a half-marathon in Beijing, China, on Saturday.
The Associated Press reports the bipedal robots made their way around the course supported by teams of human navigators, operators, and engineers.
In a time that I wouldn’t be unhappy with, the Sky Project Ultra robot won the non-human race in 2 hours and 40 minutes.
The race involved unique rules, such as pit stops to swap batteries as well as prizes for best endurance, best gait design and most innovative form, the newswire adds.
The pictures of the event are well worth your time.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL
Adam Bandt will be hearing from Anthony Albanese’s lawyers after the Greens leader stole the prime minister’s trademark “hold up your medicare card” bit at an early voting centre in Brunswick yesterday.
Say What?
We expect that the sharp increase on April 2 in both tariffs and uncertainty will lead to a significant slowdown in global growth in the near term.
The IMF
The International Monetary Fund has cut its forecast for global GDP growth to 2.8% in 2025, down 0.5% from what it predicted in January, as a result of Donald Trump’s actions. The outlook report has also forecast Australia’s economy to grow 1.6% this year, down from its previous prediction of 2.1%.
CRIKEY RECAP
If you change the government, you change the country, Paul Keating famously said. But how much change would there be on May 3 if there’s a change of government?
On every major issue — both the big policy challenges facing the country, and the issues the parties insist are the really important ones — Labor and the Coalition are on a unity ticket, with only some trivial details over implementation separating them.
Let’s go through them, starting with the big four policy challenges for our current generation of policymakers.
The website They Vote For You has data which further complicates the picture: it shows that since 2019, Steggall voted the same way as Greens leader Adam Bandt 71% of the time, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese 68% of the time, and with Opposition Leader Peter Dutton 34% of the time.
The Australian Financial Review recently went over the teals voting records as well, and found the teals, on average, aligned with legislation introduced by the Greens about 55% of the time.
“Overall, the results show the teals have carved out a new political space to the right of the Greens,” the outlet reported. “On economic issues, they are between the Liberals and Labor, but are closer to the Greens on environmental measures. And some teals are greener than others.” Or is that aqua?
On the off chance you’re not a Tele subscriber and missed its world-leading, can’t-read-anywhere-else exclusive, Pope Francis, lauded for the decency, compassion and relative modesty he brought to the role, has died at the age of 88.
The timing created awkwardness for several people. Firstly, the news broadcasters who had to transition from insisting on how much stronger the pontiff — who had been seriously ill for weeks — was looking during his Easter mass appearance in Rome to announcing he had died in literally a matter of seconds. Then there was US Vice President JD Vance, whose conversation with Francis some seven hours before he died has a lot of people just asking questions (in some cases just making statements) about the proximity of the two events.
READ ALL ABOUT IT
Prince William and Donald Trump to be among guests at Pope’s funeral on Saturday (ABC)
Israel ends mention of humanitarian zones as Gaza war grinds on (The Guardian)
Starmer does not believe trans women are women, No. 10 says (BBC)
Vladimir Putin offers to halt Ukraine invasion along current front line (The Financial Times)
Larry David mocks Bill Maher’s dinner with Trump in an op-ed for The New York Times (NBC News)
Conclave viewership shot up 283% following Pope Francis’ death (WIRED)
THE COMMENTARIAT
Political scare campaigns can’t deliver the one thing Australia needs — Ronald Mizen (AFR): The problem for Dutton is that he lost the debate more than a decade ago. And the general acceptance that there were $80 billion in cuts was a key part of Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey’s downfall. Dutton even knows how toxic it is, because he has promised to maintain Labor’s budget forecasts for health and education spending if elected on May 3.
Australians deserve to know what is on the chopping block well ahead of election day, but equally, it would take a crazy brave leader to outline any serious cuts before punters head to the polls. That is a clear failure of the system.
When asked whether Australians would be better off in three years under Labor, Albanese said he certainly wanted that for people. But if Australians are going to be better off in 10, 20 or 30 years’ time, serious budget policy will be needed.
Anthony Albanese successfully dodges landmines to cement his lead — Simon Benson (The Australian): The prime minister didn’t deny that people were worse off now than they were three years ago. His appeal to the electorate is that it could have been worse.
This debate was more likely to reach more of middle Australia than the first two, with the Sky News forum confined behind a paywall and the ABC debate skewed to a more politically engaged crowd.
But the debate wasn’t without the opportunity of some reward for Albanese. The contrast of leadership has been working in the prime minister’s favour during the campaign. Albanese is not the leader he was in the 2022 campaign.
He is across the detail and confident in his approach.
