How could the government be so wrong, year after year, decade after decade about renewable energy?
Dangus with data from the EIA
Posted on 09/13/2025 9:58:11 AM PDT by dangus
Two months ago something happened that I was hesitant to crow about: the amount of electricity produced by solar and wind projects exceeded the amount produced by nuclear energy. A few months earlier, they outpaced energy produced by burning coal. So wind and solar are now the second largest source of electricity production in the United States, if combined.
I hesitated because the number of planned solar projects in development had suddenly leveled off, just as wind projects had done the year prior. And there was a plausible cause why this might not just be a one-month fluke: Pres. Trump has cut not only federal funding but motivation for transitioning to wind plus solar.
But here's the thing: it no longer matters.
See, solar energy got a well-earned, terrible reputation for being an economic boondoggle because earlier solar technologies cost scores times more money than carbon-emission-based energy sources. But the then the price came down, down, down, down, down, down, at a rate so steady that Moore's Law (regarding the price of microprocessors continually plunging) was superceded by Wright's Law (applied to technology in general... Wright defined his law way back in 1936, but it was far less famous than Moore's Law).
Let me be clear: the people who based solar power and wind power were correct; they were a terrible waste of money. Rather than focusing on a set of applications for which photovoltaic (PV) cells made set which would gradually expand as PV cells got cheaper, we spent billions upon billions of dollars on garbage solar technologies like concentrated solar power, solar water heating, etc., which only stole market share from PV cells.
But as PV cells costs came down, they were adopted for more applications, which brough costs down in a virtuous cycle. PV cells went from calculators to remote electronics to roadside lighting to off-the-grid homes to industrial plants to utility electricity production.
But rather than being beat back by sane cost arguments, government wasters exploited the cynicism generated by people noting how expensive solar energy was, and created the myth that the government must spend trillions to make solar energy affordable. Each and every year, for decades, the government has published projections of PV energy production. And every time, the government foresees a near complete collapse of the production of PV production.
It's like someone in government doesn't get that PV energy isn't a consumable like oil. Each factory doesn't just help create more solar energy; it expands the rate at which solar energy is produced. And as a result, the amount of solar electricity created has doubled on average every three years for several decades. As a result, ten times more solar electricity was produced last year than just nine years earlier.
And that brings me around to why I write this now: I've had a chance to review the information published by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and confirmed that yes, the exponential growth rate is back on track.
Here's what that means: If the PV industry doubles just one more time, (and again remember it's doubled six times in the past 20 years), we'll be creating enough PVs to replace natural gas in just ten more years. We probably won't actually replace natural gas because instead we'll be significantly replacing gasoline, but the point is we are rapidly coming to a total collapse of carbon emissions in the next two decades.
(Petroleum-based fuels will probably persist in niche applications, much like vinyl records, snail mail, fax machines and home coal burners persist.)
For solar energy to become a dominant source of electricity, storage is necessary, which is why utility-scale battery storage is exploding at about 70% per year lately. Prices have come down so far, solar energy is cheap even with the costs of storage. Lithium remains very volatile; it's price is down 85% after an incredible surge peaking in late 2022. At current prices, it's too inexpensive to make recycling economically sensible or to fund huge improvements in extraction technologies, but it's very abundant. And ultimately, it's not consumed by the energy-creating processes. China's environmental-costs-be-damned approach to cheap lithium also undermines US development of lithium resources, so lithium may become a driver of geopolitics, but the notion of running out of it, or chromium (which is used but not consumed in the manufacture of PV panels) is absurd.
Who doesn't want development of solar energy? Simple: China and the Arab nations. You can expect more and more hatred from the Left, too, of the sort that drive Elon Musk to Republicans, as the Left realizes thet their impossible demands can actually be met and there will be no need for a globalist takeover of the economy. Don't fall for their propaganda.
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KEYWORDS: crimecorruption; vanity; vanitypostedinnews
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1 posted on 09/13/2025 9:58:11 AM PDT by dangus
To: dangus
Well, the ones pushing this niche energy source got two things: a heads up to get their relatives to invest in CCP tech, kickbacks to fund campaigns.
Only $$.
Ditto for windmills.
2 posted on 09/13/2025 10:03:09 AM PDT by bobbo666
To: dangus
When one considers the cash flow through campaign contributions, sweetheart investment deals and money laundering through allied non-profits and NGOs, it’s easy to see why our so-called representatives don’t see it as a failure.
3 posted on 09/13/2025 10:04:40 AM PDT by txeagle
To: dangus
How could the government be so wrong, year after year, decade after decade about renewable energy?
Because wasting energy is VERY profitable for investors in the energy business that buy government bonds at the artificially low interest rates they set.
4 posted on 09/13/2025 10:04:47 AM PDT by Carry_Okie (The tree of liberty needs a rope.)
To: dangus
Control. It’s what’s for public policy.
5 posted on 09/13/2025 10:05:15 AM PDT by blackdog ((Z28.310) "Diggin the scene with a gangster lean" (Mayfield, Curtis) )
To: dangus
6 posted on 09/13/2025 10:05:24 AM PDT by rktman (Destroy America from within? On hold! Enlisted USN 1967 proudly. ??! ???! Winning currently!)
To: dangus
Just a thought. They knew they were wrong but did not care because it was to their or their cronies advantage $$$$ to push for it.
7 posted on 09/13/2025 10:08:05 AM PDT by lastchance (Cognovit Dominus qui sunt eius.)
To: dangus
I honestly dont know about about energy or energy storage, but it seems like it would be fairly easy to make something extemely heavy that was lifted thoughout the day by solar and that fell and produced energy at night.
To: lastchance
There it is. They weren’t ‘wrong’...they were stealing money from the taxpayer.
9 posted on 09/13/2025 10:15:49 AM PDT by Frank Drebin (And don't ever let me catch you guys in America!)
To: Frank Drebin
Or in their mind “The bottomless cookie jar!”
To: dangus
Renewable energy is a religion. Religion requires faith. Turns out renewable energy is a false religion. The more wrong someone is, the harder they will cling to their belief.
11 posted on 09/13/2025 10:26:16 AM PDT by Gen.Blather (Wait! I said that out loud. Sorry. )
To: dangus
They weren’t ‘wrong’, they lied.
12 posted on 09/13/2025 10:27:02 AM PDT by SpaceBar
To: TexasFreeper2009
...but it seems like it would be fairly easy to make something extemely heavy that was lifted thoughout the day by solar and that fell and produced energy at night.
Maybe someone could invent..... water. Combine the water and the Sun and ... voila... all our energy problems will be solved and the inventor will be crazy rich.
: )
13 posted on 09/13/2025 10:30:23 AM PDT by UCANSEE2
To: TexasFreeper2009
...but it seems like it would be fairly easy to make something extemely heavy that was lifted thoughout the day by solar and that fell and produced energy at night.
Maybe someone could invent..... water. Combine the water and the Sun and ... voila... all our energy problems will be solved and the inventor will be crazy rich.
: )
14 posted on 09/13/2025 10:31:40 AM PDT by UCANSEE2
To: TexasFreeper2009
15 posted on 09/13/2025 10:32:25 AM PDT by Don W (When blacks riot, neighborhoods and cities burn. When whites riot, nations and continents burn)
To: dangus
So much in this article is nonsense. But especially:
‘Who doesn’t want development of solar energy? Simple: China and the Arab nations.”
China makes almost all of our solar panels and the electronics that go with them. At least some of the electronics our braindead green-agenda leaders have subsidized and sourced from China frequently “call home” to China.
China would love for us to become even more dependent on them and our grid even more susceptible to their hacking.
IMHO, no electronics, solar panels, transformers, or any other portion of our electric grid or our pipeline grid should be sourced from China.
To: ModelBreaker
>> China makes almost all of our solar panels and the electronics that go with them. At least some of the electronics our braindead green-agenda leaders have subsidized and sourced from China frequently “call home” to China. <<
That doesn’t make your case. China loses money selling PV panels, which the Trump administration has correctly assessed is done to prevent the United States from developing its own PV industry. By doing so they simultaneously reduce American demand and ensure their own energy independence.
17 posted on 09/13/2025 10:45:51 AM PDT by dangus
To: SpaceBar
>> They weren’t ‘wrong’, they lied. <<
That’s the rhetorical suggestion.
18 posted on 09/13/2025 10:46:43 AM PDT by dangus
To: dangus
You can’t run an industrial economy on Hopes and Wishes. Solar & Wind power are intermittant and backup batteries are prone to overheating and catching fire — frequently.
Can this be overcome with technology on the current drawing boards? Yes, but in what time frame? With politicians picking winners & losers on the next technology, and any of us be certain that the correct selection will be made?
19 posted on 09/13/2025 10:55:06 AM PDT by Tallguy
To: Gen.Blather
>> Renewable energy is a religion. Religion requires faith. Turns out renewable energy is a false religion. The more wrong someone is, the harder they will cling to their belief. <<
And yet, renewable energy is now cheaper than natural gas (even with battery storage) and more commonly used than coal. Remember when your co-religionists said Tesla could never turn a profit?
20 posted on 09/13/2025 10:55:42 AM PDT by dangus
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